KOTI 한국교통연구원

ASIA AND THE PACIFIC TRANSPORT FORUM 2022

오재학 원장(한국교통연구원장) 오프닝 세션 토론자료입니다.

Discussion Points for APTF Opening Session
by Jaehak Oh (President of KOTI)

Part 1. Future of Transport, Transformation

- Technologies advances appear to be a leading and decisive element in transforming future transport.
- In general, the transformation of transport is being made through automation(AV and UAM), electrification(electric vehicles), and sharing/integration(platform technology).
- Existing externalities such as congestion, accident and GHG emissions/air pollution are possible to be resolved through technology advances.
- However, various impacts from transformation need to be considered carefully. For example, employment changes, reduced  competitiveness of public transport service and restructuring of road facilities are among major impacts.
- The next 10 years will be a decisive period in transforming transport. The transformation of transport needs to be directed for the sake of increasing the quality of human life.

Part 2. Decarbonization

- In Korea, the greenhouse gas emission in transport sector accounts for 13.5%, 98 million tons out of 727 million tons in total. More than 95% GHGs in transport sector is produced from road sector. And about 65% of GHGs is produced from passenger transport, and 35% GHGs is produced from goods transport.
- Korean government announced NDC of 40% GHGs reduction by 2030 and reaching carbon neutrality by 2050.
- For passenger transport, transport demand management, modal shift to greener transport modes, and electrification are major reduction measures. In particular, electrification of passenger cars is the most effective and important measure. The government is aiming to introduce 4.5 million eco-friendly vehicles. (3.6 million electric vehicles and 0.88 million hydrogen-electric vehicles) by 2030.
- However, electrification needs to be carefully managed by considering car manufacturing capacity, charging infrastructure and consumer affordability. Market based comprehensive ecology system-such as carbon tax, fuel tax, mileage-based toll charge- is important for successful electrification.
- Decarbonization of freight transport will be made through modal shift to rail and coastal shipping, electrification and alternative biofuel use. Decarbonizing freight sector is assessed more difficult than passenger transport as freight transport is highly rely upon trucks on the road.
- In particular, electrification of freight trucks is divided into two categories of battery-based electric vehicles and hydrogen-electric vehicles. Battery-based electric vehicles will be deployed for short distance and small size less than 5 tons. And hydrogen-electric vehicles will be deployed for long distance and heavy trucks.
- For modal shift, a promotion of freight rail requires an intensive investment and technology development for efficient transshipment at interchange points.

파트1: 미래교통, 변화

- 기술발전은 미래 교통수단 변화를 결정짓는 요소임.
- 일반적으로 교통수단 변화는 자동화(AV, UAM), 전기화(전기차), 공유/통합 플랫폼 등을 통해 진행됨.
- 혼잡, 사고, 온실가스 배출, 대기오염 등은 기술 발전을 통해 해결 가능
- 이러한 전환은 고용변화, 대중교통 서비스 경쟁력 저하, 도로 시설 구조 변화 등에 영향
- 향후 10년은 교통수단 변화를 결정짓는 시시가 될 것임.
- 교통수단 변화는 인간의 삶의 질 향상에 근거하여 방향을 잡아야 함.

파트2: 탈탄소화

- 한국의 경우, 교통부문 온실가스 배출량이 전체 온실가스 배출량 중13.5%를 차지하고 있으며, 교통부문 95% 이상이 도로 부문에서 배출
- 한국 정부는 2030년까지 온실가스 40% 감축, 2050년까지 탄소중립 도달 목표로 하고 있으며,
여객 운송의 경우, 수요관리, 그린수송모드 전환, 전기화가 주요 조치이며, 승용차의 전기화가 가장 중요한 대책임.
한국 정부는 2030년까지 450만 대의 친환경차 도입을 목표
- 전기화는 자동차 제조용량, 충전 인프라, 가격 등을 고려해 신중하게 관리해야 하며, 탄소세, 연료세, 마일리지 기반 통행료 등 시장 기반 생태계 전환이 중요함.
- 화물 수송의 탈탄소화는 철도 및 연안 수송, 전기화 및 대체 바이오 연료 사용으로 전환 가능
- 화물 수송은 도로 트럭 의존도가 높아 탈탄소화가 쉽지 않다는 평가
- 화물차의 전기화는 배터리 기반 전기차와 수소전기차 두 범주로 구분되며, 단거리와 5톤 이하 소형에 배터리 기반 전기차가 투입되고, 장거리와 중형은 수소전기차 대체 전망
- 화물 철도의 활성화를 위해서는 환승지점에서의 효율적 환승에 적합한 투자와 기술개발 필요