KOTI - Korea Transport institute

While air traffic volumes in Korea are suddenly increasing after low-cost airlines entered the market, demand for airmen, such as pilots and aircraft maintenance mechanics, is also rising. Meanwhile, Chinese airlines are suffering from pilot shortages due to rapid growth. In this situation, many Korean pilots at air carriers have been changing their jobs within the same field to China. Due to this trend, airlines in Korea are raising the issue of a shortage of pilots. Furthermore, some experts predict that Chinese airlines will supply more pilots from neighboring countries such as Korea, Russia, and Japan. There is are examples of cancellation of flights due to a lack of pilots in Japan. This is a problem for airlines, but also for consumers. From a government perspective, it is necessary to forecast demand and supply and then propose policy strategies for protecting users and the stable operation of airlines in case of flight cancelation. The purpose of this study is to propose some strategies based on demand forecasts and the supply of airmen in Korea. In this study, the cause of the shortage and dynamics of the aviation labor market were analyzed through a survey of the airline’s employees and related stakeholders. This study presented the need and legal basis for demand forecasting and supply. It also proposed methods of demand forecasting and managing airman statistics.