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Impact Analysis of Mobility for Policy Change
||Bumchul CHO, Kihun KWON, Deokbae AN
||The Korea Transport Institute
||mobility change, mobility patterns, mobility fluctuations, data building
The day-to-day trip pattern has been rapidly changing during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Its changed situations are different from when other worldwide crises were broke out, such as the oil crisis and the global financial recession. Because various mandatory policies that prevent the local community from being infected have driven its trip pattern into a new one, many scientific researchers have tried to show the impact level of the COVID-19. However, some research results could not catch the detailed trace of changing movements based on the reliable model.
Therefore, this study tried to figure out how the day-to-day trip pattern changed with a newly developed model, in which research items can be divided into three parts. First, we extracted the day-to-day trip pattern of all regions in the whole country with the analysis algorithms of mobile communication base station data. Then we proposed new indexes to show the mobility changes both of volume and travel pattern. Lastly, we developed a new VAR model to analyze the time-varying impact of trip patterns in the COVID-19 Pandemic.
As a result, we find out that the social distancing policy has a long-term impact to manage the trip volume and the surge of COVID-19 new-cases has a short-term impact on it relatively.