KOTI - Korea Transport institute

Errors in traffic demand forecast occur in three stages. First, errors occur in the KTDB establishment stage, the basic data. Second, errors occur in the implementation stage, the driver behaviors of the traffic demand model. Third, errors are caused by environmental changes (such as design changes or changes in the development plan) in the project promotion stage following a preliminary feasibility study. It is realistically impossible to accurately identify the cause of errors between the traffic demand forecasted through a preliminary feasibility study and the traffic volume investigated after project implementation in terms of the three factors above. To improve the reliability of traffic demand forecasts this study focused on improving the reliability of KTDB by preventing the cause of errors occurring in the first stage rather than those occurring in the second and third stages, which are difficult to resolve in a short period of time or require systematic improvement.