Chong Suk CHO et al.
In recent years, Korea is facing huge socioeconomic changes that have not been experienced in the past, such as the decrease in the population of working aged people due to an aging society, the concentration of population in large cities and the decrease in population density in local cities due to urban polarization, changes in the values of life, climate change and a lack of resources, and the development of advanced science and technology. Since the transportation SOCs have a great impact on people's lives and national competitiveness, it is crucial to identify new trends in this era of change and to establish future transportation SOC strategies to proactively respond to changes in future transportation demand.
This study aims to forecast future passenger travel demand changes and future transportation issues expected from these huge changes such as rapid population changes, urban polarization, changes in life values, climate change and resource shortages, and the development of advanced science and technology which we have never experienced before. In addition, by presenting transportation strategies to address future issues, we aim to improve citizens’ quality of life in the future and strengthen national competitiveness.
To this end, we focus on studying changes in passenger travel demand and future issues in accordance with changes in population and socioeconomic conditions up until today, and derive the possibility of demand changes and the importance of future issues through expert surveys. In addition, this paper aims to establish future transportation SOC strategies by presenting transportation policies in response to each derived future issue.
The transportation SOC facilities covered in this study are limited to passenger transportation facilities, and the scope of transportation mode is limited to land transportation such as roads, railroads, and buses. The spatial scope covers the whole country, excluding ports and airport facilities that primarily handle international travel. For the time range, 20 years of past data is used for trend analysis, and the target year is set as 2045 for the future traffic demand forecast.
This study suggests a transportation SOC strategy which is a response to changes in future passenger travel demand and includes four steps. First, we analyze passenger travel trends by major mega trends. Second, meta-analysis is conducted to predict future changes in passenger travel demand and identify future major issues. Third, the importance of future transportation issues is calculated through an expert survey. Fourth, we propose transportation policies and strategies for major future issues by considering national and foreign policies.
The main results of this study are summarized as follows. First, five trends affecting future transportation demand are selected through the review of existing literature. The selected five trends are demographic change, change in values and quality of life, urban polarization, science and technology development, climate change and resource shortage. These five major trends are again divided into 18 detailed trends, and the expected changes in traffic demand for each of these detailed trends are predicted through relevant literature reviews and decisions made by the research team. In addition, 29 prospective future transportation issues are selected for each detailed trend. Finally, through an expert survey, we select the importance of each future transportation issue and suggest detailed countermeasures of transportation policies and priorities based on the importance of these. It is expected that the transportation policy for each future transportation issue presented in this study will be used as a basis for establishing future transportation strategies for central and local governments.
Hee Cheol SHIN · Jong-Deok LEE · Seongyong PARK
1. The necessity and purpose of research
Changes in traffic trends are taking place due to the arrival of future societies, including entry into super-aged societies, the increase in the employment rate of women and the elderly, and the decrease in the population of provincial cities due to the concentration of populations in large cities. To meet the people's expectations regarding this social trend change and national transport, the tasks undertaken by the Korea Transport Institute need to be implemented more systematically, and research tasks to reflect and address the needs of the people's long-term road map tailored to the public eye and the needs of the people are required. It also needs to respond to rapidly changing traffic conditions, find and select research tasks in preparation for mid- to long-term prospects for future traffic demand, and establish strategies for promoting research tasks that can enhance national competitiveness in the 21st century.
The purpose of this study is to establish a planning system necessary for the development of transport policy issues that are consistent with changes in internal and external conditions, and for the development of transport policy issues that are felt by the public through the people's needs and future society's prospects for change.
2. Main research contents
This study derived key research issues and research performance strategies through internal and external traffic policy research environment analysis, future change and prospective public need and influence analysis, and presented improvement measures through the analysis of the researchers' task performance system to resolve key research issues.
The analysis of the environment for internal and external traffic policy research was initiated with the analysis of the government's national affairs and policy issues. In addition, the analysis of the performance of the previous research carried out identified the internal and external policy research environment, and the implications of the traffic policy study were derived by predicting future social changes.
The analysis of future changes and the outlook and impact of public needs were explored through market research and demand surveys for the general public by reviewing future social trends regarding the status of policy research and predicting the impact of these changes on the transport sector. In addition, preference and feasibility studies were conducted by experts and general users through predicting future transport services, and key research issues and research performance strategies were derived. Priorities by project area were derived for working-level officials of relevant ministries, focusing on the key issues derived.
3. Conclusion and Policy Proposal
In this study, three key research issues were derived while developing strategies to cope with the various changes in social and economic conditions.
'Key Research Issue I' is 'Future Strategy for the Fourth Industrial Revolution,' which consists of mobility innovation, paradigm shift response, and innovation-based policy trust, while 'Core Research Issue II' is the 'Transportation Plan to Improve the Quality of Life' composed of balanced support for national territory development, support for people's livelihood and a fair economy, and the enhancement of public safety. ‘Core research III‘ is a "study on state affairs for inclusive innovation growth" consisting of responses to new economic guidance on the Korean Peninsula, including strengthening the public nature of the Transportation SOC, creating a job economy, reconciliation and cooperation between the two Koreas, and the New South.
Also, as a national think tank, the government proposed a survey plan to proactively explore future trends, policy demands, and research issues to respond to public needs, focusing on three key research issues in the transportation sector to cope with future changes.
As a national think tank, the main body is an institution with an important role to contribute to the nation's transport development and government transport policies, and it is important to develop strategies for responding to changes in the transportation sector in response to future social changes. However, since modern society is changing very rapidly and public needs and social and economic values are also changing rapidly, the three key research issues presented in this study need to be reviewed periodically. There is a need to establish a regular research planning road map to address new key research issues as a state-run research institute.